The share market over the last two weeks has become quite volatile. It is on expected lines, and as an investor, there may not be much which we may do right now. All focus suddenly has turned to the US President Donald Trump testing positive for the covid19 virus. Under normal circumstances, if the benchmark Sensex breaks 38712 on the upside, the trend becomes bullish yet again for the markets. The current close of Sensex is 38697 which is almost the same, 15 points o Sensex doesn’t matter at all, the same would have been taken off on Monday itself, but then we now have to see how much impact the news from America may impact us.
The support for the Sensex is at 36814, and the recent low is 38308, below which most of the bulls would run for cover. That situation is unlikely to happen right now. Anything is possible in share markets, but what we saw in March and April may not repeat immediately for a variety of reasons. Hope you all remember my article titled ‘sell that house you own and invest in shares’ posted in March on http://www.vridhi.co.in. Many of you may be wondering why we are busy changing our website; we did it to resemble Vridhi Investment in the website name itself. Anyways coming back to our discussions, that article in march invited trolling, and many investors came forward to invest too. Trolls didn’t make money, but those who invested made decent profits.
No way Iam trying to tell that Iam right always. Iam a human being too and have committed many mistakes in the share market in the past, over the last 19 years, I have been learning from every mistake so that the experience is useful for the investors investing through Vridhi. Also, the same thing is passed on to the students of finance whom I regularly address at various forums and colleges. This is where the role of experienced financial personnel helps. Always approach an expert who can do a complete analysis of your risks and your suitability analysis before investing.
So why do I feel that the share market may not come down a lot? The first and foremost reason being that the economy is gradually opened up. Even theatres are opening this time. The latest news is that the GST has reached the pre-COVID levels and the automobile sales picked up last month. I believe that this Diwali may see good turnover by businesses as people have been locked for months now and they may go on a shopping spree.
The next major reason why we feel that market may remain stable is on account of the American Presidential elections. None of the candidates, Donald Trump or Joe Biden would like the market to correct before the elections. America is totally different compared to India when it comes to investments and the investors. Majority of population in America invests in the share market, directly or indirectly. Hence, the presidential nominees will do everything to keep market stable.
But the news that Donald Trump has tested positive may keep the share market on its toes. Indian market escaped the brunt on Friday due to holiday. Hence some sense may prevail by Monday. Hence though a delicate situation, we may sail through it smoothly. The share markets across the world want Trump to return, considering his age, we will have constantly look at how things unfold over the one month.
IT and Pharma are doing well right now and may perform a bit more till the American elections. Only thing worrisome currently is that lots of investors are flocking towards websites offering free investment options. Nothing comes free, when a thing is free, remember you are the product!
Stay tuned with this website http://www.VridhiInvestment.in, we will be coming with lot more info in days to come.
- Vivek Karwa